The playbook to avoid OpenAI killing your startup (and how Granola does it)

OpenAI is killing thousands of startups and very few know how to avoid it. This is how

A few weeks ago, I read something from Brian Balfour that really got me thinking.

He explained how big tech companies like Google, Apple, Facebook, and LinkedIn all use the same playbook to grow fast and make money.

And once you see the pattern, you can’t unsee it.

I spent a whole weekend digging into it. What hit me was this: the same thing is starting to happen with AI platforms right now—tools that seem “open” and friendly with their free APIs, plugins, and integrations.

But here’s the catch: every time this pattern plays out, a bunch of startups get stuck. They build on top of these platforms, grow fast, and then slowly get crushed when the platform changes the rules.

So today I’m going to break down that playbook—how it works, what to watch out for, and how smart startups have flipped the script to grow even faster instead of getting trapped.

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Meet Alfred

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The Playbook: Open the Gates, Then Shut Them

Here’s the game big tech keeps playing — and startups keep falling for:

1. Find the Advantage
   First, the platform finds its “moat” — the thing that gives it a huge edge.

   • Google had all the info on the internet.

   • Apple had the App Store.

   • Facebook had your friends.

   • LinkedIn had your work network.

2. Open the Gates
   Then they make everything look super friendly. They let developers and companies in.

   • “Use our free tools!”

   • “Here’s access to our data!”

   • “Grow with us!”
     It feels like a gold rush.

3. Grow Fast
   While everyone builds on top of their platform, they get stronger. More content, more users, more power.

4. Close the Gates
   Once they’re big enough? They start pulling the ladder up.

   • APIs get limited.

   • Free features vanish.

   • You need to pay to reach users.

   • They copy the best apps and crush the originals.

5. Add the Tax
   Now you’re stuck. You’ve built your business around them — and they start charging you for the privilege.

Let me show you how this played out:

• Google: At first, SEO was amazing — free traffic everywhere. Now? Ads fill the top, Google keeps people on their page, and even competes with you in travel, finance, and more.

• Apple: Developers used to get 70% of app money. Now Apple takes a 30% cut, forces in-app payments, and promotes their own apps above yours.

• Facebook: Gave devs free access and viral growth… then limited everything and taxed you 30% with Facebook Credits. Oh, and copied your app too.

• LinkedIn: Gave creators tons of reach in 2020. By 2023? That reach vanished unless you paid for “Thought Leader Ads.”

See the pattern?

Each time, it happens faster. Google took 10+ years to pull this off. Facebook did it in 5. LinkedIn needed just 3. With AI? This playbook might run in months.

AI is next and many startups will die (How to Avoid it + how Granola does it)